Month: September 2021

$RTY: Next Target

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

A little deep for a 2, but $RTY has been doing that sometimes lately (deep twos). The 78.6% retracement is the second most common level for twos and we’re there now and it coincides with the green trend line again.

I have noted the target for minute (blue) 3 above.

You can see that the structure looks like a spring, and that’s just what I believe it is, and I believe it will spring to the upside.

RTY

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The Nikkei Is Entering the Expected Range for a Wave 2 of Intermediate Degree

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The Nikkei ($NI225) has entered the expected range for wave two of intermediate degree. The move down is so far composed of 3 waves so may finish anytime that it would like to. A plunge significantly deeper than the orange box would begin to cast doubt on this interpretation, but I believe we should expect continued upside once the correction has completed.

NI225

Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

$HSBC Is in the Range for a Two of Primary Degree

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After making a five wave advance off the crash lows, $HSBC has entered a summer’s-long correction that has taken it into the range expected for a two of primary degree. The reaction to the multi-year trend line was to be expected. It has fallen in three waves, so it may already be complete. It has the right “look” in terms of both time and price. I have noted the target for primary 3 in the orange box above us.

I will update it with shorter-term targets once the first wave of at least minor degree has completed.

HSBC

Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

New $OIL Target

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The measured move of this bull pennant is noted by the orange box:

OIL

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

$COMM Bounce Imminent and Target

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

$COMM is interesting to ponder. I see only three waves up from the crash lows. That could make this a four, but it looks too deep, and swift for that. It looks more like a 2. It looks like five waves down in this move so far, so it may be only halfway through, though its depth may mean that it is complete. At any rate, the diverging lows suggest that this move is finishing here. On any interpretation, we should at least see a good relief rally soon heading toward the orange box above us.

COMM

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

$CMI May Produce a Fade-able Bounce Soon

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$CMI is producing the first real discernible wave of note since its rally from the crash lows. It is therefore a good candidate for a wave 2 of primary (pink) degree. The divergence suggests that this leg may be done, though it may also need one more low (second chart below). In either case, we should see a rally to the orange B above us before an even deeper decline to orange C below us.

CMI

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

$CCI Is Entering the Expected Range for an Intermediate Wave 2

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

$CCI has about the right look for a 1-2-1-2 pump of primary and then intermediate degrees. I would like to see it form diverging lows in and around the orange box (though notice pink 2 did not give us that) before moving toward its intermediate 3 target.

CCI

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

$ANTM Long Consolidation May Lead to a Channel Strike

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$ANTM is is a very long-term channel that goes back many years. This long period of consolidation may lead to a significant advance. The measured move takes it to the orange box which closely coincides with the upper bound of the ancient channel.

ANTM

Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

$ABMD Bullish Consolidation Breakout, Retest and Target

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After breaking out this bullish consolidation, $ABMD is retesting it. The target for this structure is the orange box.

ABMD

Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.

And One More Reason We Might Be Done

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I watch the equity put to call ratio with some care. As you may remember, I was skeptical of the pump last week because the correction didn’t seem done on account of the Equity PCR not hitting the spikey high we often see at capitulation lows. That post can be found here. And sure enough, here we are, that pump got faded.

However: we got the spikey high today. The ratio almost hit 1, which is fuel for the upside now. The last time we got to these lows on 9/20, we only got an .85 on the ratio. So now—finally—people are really buying puts here. And that means it’s probably actually time to buy calls instead.

PCCE

 

Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.