Month: September 2021

$RTY: Next Target

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

A little deep for a 2, but $RTY has been doing that sometimes lately (deep twos). The 78.6% retracement is the second most common level for twos and we’re there now and it coincides with the green trend line again.

I have noted the target for minute (blue) 3 above.

You can see that the structure looks like a spring, and that’s just what I believe it is, and I believe it will spring to the upside.

RTY

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The Nikkei Is Entering the Expected Range for a Wave 2 of Intermediate Degree

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The Nikkei ($NI225) has entered the expected range for wave two of intermediate degree. The move down is so far composed of 3 waves so may finish anytime that it would like to. A plunge significantly deeper than the orange box would begin to cast doubt on this interpretation, but I believe we should expect continued upside once the correction has completed.

NI225

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$HSBC Is in the Range for a Two of Primary Degree

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After making a five wave advance off the crash lows, $HSBC has entered a summer’s-long correction that has taken it into the range expected for a two of primary degree. The reaction to the multi-year trend line was to be expected. It has fallen in three waves, so it may already be complete. It has the right “look” in terms of both time and price. I have noted the target for primary 3 in the orange box above us.

I will update it with shorter-term targets once the first wave of at least minor degree has completed.

HSBC

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New $OIL Target

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The measured move of this bull pennant is noted by the orange box:

OIL

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$COMM Bounce Imminent and Target

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

$COMM is interesting to ponder. I see only three waves up from the crash lows. That could make this a four, but it looks too deep, and swift for that. It looks more like a 2. It looks like five waves down in this move so far, so it may be only halfway through, though its depth may mean that it is complete. At any rate, the diverging lows suggest that this move is finishing here. On any interpretation, we should at least see a good relief rally soon heading toward the orange box above us.

COMM

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$CMI May Produce a Fade-able Bounce Soon

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$CMI is producing the first real discernible wave of note since its rally from the crash lows. It is therefore a good candidate for a wave 2 of primary (pink) degree. The divergence suggests that this leg may be done, though it may also need one more low (second chart below). In either case, we should see a rally to the orange B above us before an even deeper decline to orange C below us.

CMI

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$CCI Is Entering the Expected Range for an Intermediate Wave 2

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

$CCI has about the right look for a 1-2-1-2 pump of primary and then intermediate degrees. I would like to see it form diverging lows in and around the orange box (though notice pink 2 did not give us that) before moving toward its intermediate 3 target.

CCI

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$ANTM Long Consolidation May Lead to a Channel Strike

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

$ANTM is is a very long-term channel that goes back many years. This long period of consolidation may lead to a significant advance. The measured move takes it to the orange box which closely coincides with the upper bound of the ancient channel.

ANTM

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$ABMD Bullish Consolidation Breakout, Retest and Target

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After breaking out this bullish consolidation, $ABMD is retesting it. The target for this structure is the orange box.

ABMD

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And One More Reason We Might Be Done

dereckcoatneyLeave a comment

I watch the equity put to call ratio with some care. As you may remember, I was skeptical of the pump last week because the correction didn’t seem done on account of the Equity PCR not hitting the spikey high we often see at capitulation lows. That post can be found here. And sure enough, here we are, that pump got faded.

However: we got the spikey high today. The ratio almost hit 1, which is fuel for the upside now. The last time we got to these lows on 9/20, we only got an .85 on the ratio. So now—finally—people are really buying puts here. And that means it’s probably actually time to buy calls instead.

PCCE

 

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