Two Possibilities for $AMZN: Either One Should Lead to Lower Prices in the Short-Term

In this tweet from the 21st of August, I suggested the idea that $AMZN could bounce to the $3,500 area, which it has since done. From this point, there are two alternatives that I think are most probable.

The bearish case would have expected the rally from the 8/21 low to be a correction (in this case, blue b), before another move down to blue c. We would expect the move to blue c to proceed in 5 waves, much as blue a proceeded. It would look something like this:


One reservation I have about this is that blue b as I have it labelled actually looks somewhat impulsive meaning that we may expect the most recent highs to be taken out at some point. However, even in this scenario, it looks like a 5-wave pattern complete, in which case it is due for a pullback in the very short-term anyways. In this scenario, we would label it something like this (as blue 1 instead of blue b):


Bearish RSI divergence suggests that regardless of which of the two alternatives we select, some kind of local top has formed. In sum: I think there is a high probability for an immediate move down. The question will be how low it will go from here, either ~4% all the way to ~15%. I will be watching the structure of the move down with keen interest if it does in fact continue to do so.

[UPDATE]: Since the price action has fallen to the range depicted in the second chart, which was the minimum expectation, I will file this as a win.


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