I don’t like surprises, and just backing up and looking at the price action on $ES has alerted me to a possibility. My primary analysis (as a minuette 1-2 here) is of course still intact, but the market as a whole may also very well be in a wave 4 of some degree, given its maturity. Due to that possibility, I can detect here what may become a 4th wave triangle. It would mess a lot of people up, so I always like to consider them. I have left my markups for my other setup in place so I can watch them both.
If this turns out to be a 4, we may see an incredibly sharp rally followed, believe it or not, by a dump that takes out last week’s low, if even only nominally so (“e”‘s often fall a little short of their trend line strikes, though we would expect it to take out “c”). Would be hella fun. I have indicated that possible count in red (my main count is the orange).
These are rare patterns, so I don’t place a very high probability on it. One way we should be able to detect it is the green trend line above. That should be resistance. Also, if we move sharply in that direction, we would expect the move from here to there to unfold in 3 waves, not 5. My main count should take us through green in 5 waves.
So, keep this on your radar, just in case.
And I mean hella fun
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