I have two counts for $AMD. Previously, I was only considering the more bullish of the two because of the nature of the rally to the August high. However, I am going to add a second count now because of the nature of the correction since that high.
- The first count is a large triple nest of ones and twos, intermediate (orange), then minor (green), then minute (blue).
- The second is just the orange count (ignore the green and blue ones and twos). On that count we’re wrapping up a 4th wave.
The advantage of the first count was that I would have expected $AMD to rally for a long time (months) after having spent almost five months consolidating from December onwards. That is still absolutely on the table here. If that period was a reaccumulation, I would expect a very large and long-winded markup phase taking it to much higher prices. This remains my preferred count.
The advantage of the second count is that it’s more conservative and the whole “size” of the recent price action is getting “big” for a nest of ones and twos. We would sort of expect each nest to get a little “smaller” because they are of a lower degree, but this last arc is sort of huge for a minute (blue) wave 2.
The good news: in either case, we basically have the exact same “next target.” If it’s all ones and twos, the first three coming should get us to the orange box. And if we’re wrapping up a big 4, the 5 should take out the last high, which happens to be at the top of the orange box.
So in this case, we’re lucky: we can aim for that box with some reasonable confidence.
[UPDATE]: We’ve hit the target range specified, so I will file this under “Successful Calls.” I will need to monitor it from here prior to making a new call.
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