I’m leaning towards this $ES count. It does depend on a strong rally. I have alternatives in case we don’t get it.
Part of it is based on the 61.8% retrace we’ve just made, but also, we have a high equity PCR, consistent with a low of significance, and a big part of this are my feelings about sentiment here. I follow lots of analysts, and virtually all of them (even the bulls) are looking for a major correction (that big orange 4) right this second. I would rather it be up on ahead somewhere where it can a few more of us by surprise. I would rather see most analysts offering bullish projections before I felt too comfortable about it being at hand.
Now, if we don’t get a big rally soon, I will of course revert: it’s fairly straight forward to drag that big orange 3 much closer (and I’ve already shared that possibility with you here).