The Bear View on $SPY

Likewise with the Russell, let’s look at the bearish view on $SPY. The bearish view here is that intermediate (large orange) 3 is already over and that we have entered intermediate 4.

What is required, at a minimum, is a 3-wave move of some magnitude (green A-B-C). It can be more complicated, for instance a 5-wave triangle or several 3-wave moves combined into a larger one, etc. But, backed out a bit, let’s look at a simple 3-wave structure.


On this count, green A should be a 5-wave move, and a little leading diagonal may have been the first of those. Once we get a first 5-waves down (in blue), we may expect a complicated rally of some kind to green B and then another plunge, ideally taking us to the lower end of the large orange box.

Zoomed in a bit, let’s look closer:


We may have completed a first 5-waves down in the form a leading diagonal. Ideally, the wave 2 will go a bit higher, and we would expect it to occur in three waves and we only have one (the gap up). Futures have 3 waves, but we should also see three waves in the cash sessions (in theory at least). After blue 2 is in, we may expect a deeper plunge to 3, etc. As with the Russell, I am only describing all of this hypothetically, and am not making a particular prediction as I need to watch this further: so, I’m posting this under Observations.

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