The bearish view is defensible: the move from the January low looks corrective in nature and (more objectively) we remain under the 250-week EMA, the literal definition of being in a long-term downtrend. As such, I had been counting the recent high as being the high for a while. Today’s price action has brought us to the 50-61.8% retracement of the prior move (orange box we’re in at present), so if we’re going to turn lower, this is a good place for us to do so.
However, locally, we may also be observing an inverse. If it plays out, we may extend to the measured move. If we do, we may move the count over one wave.
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