On one analysis, we can see, plain as day on $MARA, two distinct highs from the March 2020 low. Regardless of how you want to count it internally, it has the appearance of two peaks. And whether we like Elliott Wave Theory or not, it is hard to deny the very basic tenet: the market impulses in five waves and corrects in three. If this count is correct, we should see one more high. How high will it go? I don’t know, but we know that the prior high should be breached, and so that gives us a juicy target to aim for and it’s 60% above us, despite what the distorting effects of log scale might make us question on this chart.
And now speaking of the distorting effects of log, let’s take a look at another plausible count. We need to consider this count because of just how deep that “4” is on the chart above us. Oof. Almost 70%!:
That’s much too deep for a typical wave 4. And so the alternative is to count that as a wave 2, which tend to be much deeper. And if we do that, the typical target for the wave 3 is between $80 and $100, also well above what could be our merely conservative target of the prior high.
The one caveat is: was the primary 2, as I have it labeled above, long enough in time to correct the year-long advance? Was 3 months enough? Probably. I would suggest that because it fell so much in price, it didn’t need any more time.
[UPDATE]: As we’ve come within an inch of the prior high, having rallied 57% from the time of my original post, I will file this under “Successful Calls.” I will need to monitor the price action from here for a bit prior to making another call.
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