Corrections are far more difficult to count than impulses (which do carry there own problems—e.g., “is it a nest?”) but we can make some initial assessments here. The recent plunge is a good candidate for a wave 3 (of some degree; I’ve assigned one arbitrarily here). We may expect some consolidation here for the 4th wave, followed, hopefully, by a move to my first target. Now, if we get that, we should see divergence forming there (I’ve hypothesized that on the RSI), and that would be a good candidate for a bottom.
What we don’t really know at that point is whether the whole correction is complete at what I’ve labeled green A, or whether it’s as I’ve labeled it, the first of three swings in a larger 3-swing move (within an even larger 3-swing move). The conservative view seems to me to be to (lol say that fast) target green B. If green A is actually the bottom, then we’ll get to green B anyways, surpass it even. But if it’s all part of an ongoing larger correction, we should still get a technical relief rally in that direction.
My target for the time being is the $402 level.
[UPDATE]: Since I was expecting at least a counter-trend bounce which has failed to materialize, I will file this under “Unsuccessful Calls.” I will need to monitor the price action from here prior to making a new call.
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