$ES Two Favored Counts for This Correction

(Ignore the red count for a moment.)

The falling diagonal pattern on $ES looks clear as day to me now, though I wish I had been able to foresee it, something I am sometimes good at doing. If we find support at the green trend line, or recover after underthrowing it a bit is acceptable, too, we should move to green B, followed by another 5-wave impulse to green C (orange 4). The bottom of the orange box is the 38.2% retracement of orange 3 and it also challenges the channel we’re in, which 4th waves often do. That count would imply one last hurrah to a major top before a very large correction, or an outright bear market.

I want to present the alt I am carrying, too, and that’s the one in red. It’s the count that oil suggests to me. A big breakout on oil would mean the reflation trade is still in its infancy, and the markets should move up without looking back for some time. It’s a very bullish count, but I cannot ignore the big bull flags on oil and copper.

If we unexpectedly crash from here, I won’t have much to say except that I would have to wait for a big counter-rally of some kind to look to sell. I just can’t short the lows.


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