The crucial thing for me on $ES, at the moment, is taking out prior lows, which we’ve failed to do on an initial swing since the crash lows. If we do, it’s a sign that we may be in a larger correction and it would suggest (to me) that we may need a larger three-swing move, at a minimum, to complete the structure. And it would look something like this (some kind of retracement, followed by another swing lower taking our present low, wherever it forms). The “timing” of these boxes could be moved closer, too (a very fast rally, followed by a steep second descent). I still think, based on many of the instruments that I watch, that this is less likely, but the $VIX breakout needs to be capped.
If we don’t take out that low, there’s nothing stopping us from moving straight back to all-time highs.