$10YRYLD Long-Term Outlook

This is a long-term view on the $10YRYLD because the pattern that is developing is a very large one. I believe a huge macro inverse is forming, which tells me the reflation trade is hardly over. The target happens to coincide with the 40-year trend line. And it may take well into next year to reach it. We still need to finish forming this shoulder, then take the neckline, then probably retest it, then advance.

I know many people are skeptical that the market can tolerate rates that high, but that may be one reason that they go that high, for all we know. Until this pattern turns into something else, I will continue to listen to it.


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