$TUP Also Shows a Familiar Pattern

As with many of the momentum stocks that reigned supreme last year, $TUP, too, has the familiar falling, bullish wedge. And like the others, it shows the decimation, having lost 50% of its value from the highs. If the low is in, we will eventually target new all-time highs, but a conservative target is the orange box.


And it’s important to remind ourselves just how much these stocks that went wild last year have been destroyed, something we can better see when we take the scale from log to arithmetic. They have been smoked both in time and in price.


I made this argument some time ago back in May on Twitter: I believe this is actually a very bullish development. We understand that markets end on peak euphoria, where a lot of silly money1 is all in long at the top. But that’s not where we’re at. That naive retail investment crowd who chased momentum stocks have already been obliterated. And now that that has been flushed from the system, there’s now ample room for us to keep going (lol, to chase these things all over again).

1 The more common epithet for the inexperienced market participant is “dumb money,” but I think that is uncharitable and so I like to use “silly” instead.

[UPDATE]: While this up from my previous call, I don’t like how it’s going exactly sideways. I am going to cancel this call to the orange box. I have a feeling it may continue to go sideways (or even down) from here.


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