Since we haven’t (so far) gotten the super-acceleration in the 3rd wave to the orange box (we still may) and have formed a bearish wedge on $ES, it may simply be a leading diagonal for wave 1 (blue). If that’s true, and if it breaks down, it can retest fairly low (lower than the typical 50-61.8% retracement). You can imagine what happens in these scenarios: everyone interprets it as a bear wedge, piles in short, and gets something in their direction, giving them confidence before they get their faces ripped off in a 3rd wave.
If we get a hard acceleration taking us to the box, this scenario is less likely, but I don’t yet see the real extension we like to see in (typical, non-leading diagonal) 3rd waves of impulses.
[UPDATE]: This was just an observation, and not a specific call, but it can be disregarded. The impulse up today was of such strength so as to cast doubt on the leading diagonal hypothesis. See my other recent post for my present view.