In this post, I pointed out an inverse that had formed on $TSLA, but it has morphed into something else. I believe we will still go up in price, but not as high as predicted in that post. So, that call is killed, and I have a new one. Also, I expressed the difficulty I have been having with its structure and count, but I now believe I have solved those difficulties.
A summary of some of the issues at hand:
- The grinding nature of the move up from May almost certainly means it is still in a correction, not any kind of new impulsive move.
- That triangle I’ve stuck an arrow on is a huge clue. They only occur in “B” and “4th” waves. And there’s no way to make that a 4, even by force, so we can conclude that it’s a B.
- If it’s a B, then what follows is a C and should be a 5-wave pattern, and that looks good. And I think we’re in the 4th wave triangle of that. The inverse I had pointed out before turned into that instead and it’s a big clue for me.
So, I also believe that cycle wave 3 was the top of the market, and a big sideways slopfest since then is what we would expect for a 4 of this magnitude, so that’s good.
We would expect a 4 of this degree to end, ideally, at the lower end of the orange box. We can draw a barely ascending triangle around all of the price action, and that’s what I think we’re in. So, the next moves on this analysis: a drop to minute (blue) e, then a rally to pink D, then a 3-wave drop into the target range for big pink E, then it’s going to surpass the prior high in five big waves over a very long period of time, a bull run of probably a year or more. And I will post a zoomed in view below this chart as well.
Zoomed in a bit:
[UPDATE]: Micro update: the little drop this morning counts perfectly well as the little blue e wave. You’ll hear me say this all the time: they very often fall short Of their trend lines. So, on my interpretation, it’s already moving up for its last leg here.
[UPDATE]: This has been moving up too strongly. While it is still possible that it turn lower, I doubt it very much at this point. I will file under “Unsuccessful Calls.” I have made a revised call here.