It’s not great that $ES hasn’t drifted up and to the right as I expected it to. As it stands now, we only have a 3-swing move, and we need 5 to gain confidence in the thought that we’re not going to take out the 9/20 lows. Now, we’re still in the reasonable range of a wave 4, but we need to move up again at some point to take out yesterday’s high. There’s not much I can say at this point because there are many alternatives from which to pick and choose, so I can only basically observe until I see something with greater clarity.
The danger we face is that by only having a 3-swing move from the lows, we risk this rally being a B-wave of a larger 3-swing correction, which could take us as low as orange c below, though if this is a 4, it need not to and it may also only reach the prior low making an “h” pattern, which can be common.