Commodities have been in a very long bear market, and those don’t last forever. If negative oil wasn’t a sign of a generational low, then I don’t know what else could be.
As with $OIL, $XLE has broken a multi-year down trend and seems to have tested it with support. This is a very bullish count (orange 1-2, green 1-2) but if it were a 1-2-3-4, then we would only expect nominal new highs followed by a relapse under the trend line.
That would be quite the fakeout, to break trend like that only to give it right back up (to the delight every deflationist out there) but I prefer trying to listen to it here. We may very well be entering a commodities bull market here, and it’s something that could last for many years. And it would start with a 1-2-1-2 pump breaking trend.
Here is the target for minor 3: