I was expecting a little more strength this morning on $ES. I don’t like that we first recaptured, but then lost, the orange trend line. We may certainly recapture it again, but, as a precaution, I will note the bearish count that could take us much lower: it is possible to count the correction as a 1 down, 2 back, 1 down, 2 back. If this is true, we may see much lower prices and this would imply that we are in a much larger correction.
I don’t have a ton of confidence in the count, but until we see a sustained and strong rally to the upside, caution is warranted.