My expectations are that $ES does something roughly like the following. Some kind of break of trend, followed by a backtest. Now, I have no idea if its going to go as high as I’ve suggested; it need not go that high; however, oftentimes on breaks of trend like the one I expect here, we go and revisit the prior high in some fashion, so I’ve painted it like this for that reason. The general thought here is a yawning arc to the upside, followed by a decent pullback.
But: just when this rally makes my bullish bias feel vindicated, it’s important to note that we have not yet broken trend, and even if we do, bull traps are a thing. Despite the triangle idea getting wrecked yesterday, it’s still possible to count all of this price action correctively. And so, until we start actually looking like the chart above, the possibility remains open that we turn into the chart below.
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