$ES My Bullish Expectations, Plus Another Look at the Bearish Alternative

My expectations are that $ES does something roughly like the following. Some kind of break of trend, followed by a backtest. Now, I have no idea if its going to go as high as I’ve suggested; it need not go that high; however, oftentimes on breaks of trend like the one I expect here, we go and revisit the prior high in some fashion, so I’ve painted it like this for that reason. The general thought here is a yawning arc to the upside, followed by a decent pullback.

ES

But: just when this rally makes my bullish bias feel vindicated, it’s important to note that we have not yet broken trend, and even if we do, bull traps are a thing. Despite the triangle idea getting wrecked yesterday, it’s still possible to count all of this price action correctively. And so, until we start actually looking like the chart above, the possibility remains open that we turn into the chart below.

ES


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.


4 thoughts on “$ES My Bullish Expectations, Plus Another Look at the Bearish Alternative”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *