I have no crystal ball, so I’m just accumulating evidence and trying to assess. This morning I pointed out my bullish expectations and the bearish alternative, but I would like add a point to that discussion. Something that shows up a little bit clearer on cash $SPY than it does on $ES is a little triangle below us. And note its position in relation to the prior one (these are the minute [blue] b waves), how similar they are to each other.
That’s a bad place for a triangle if you’re trying to be bullish (one wants to see triangles high, not low). It may mean that this move up, like the last move up is counter-trend, a 3-wave move.
This dampens my bullishness to some degree.
[Pedantic Update]: In my haste to point it out, I labelled the second move strangely on the chart above, this would be more appropriate (but the essence of the analysis is the same):