A Couple of Thoughts on $ES

There is a reasonable 5-wave move complete in here now on $ES (that’s my submicro [light blue] labeling). It could mean that micro (purple) 3 is complete, as we’ve also entered the minimum extension range for that (orange box).

There’s still plenty of uncertainty here: there are plenty of ways to count this so that it can continue to extend. However, if this count is right, we may see some consolidation here, or at least see that the slope of the ascent slows. And also, if there’s still a bearish alternative, it could emerge here or close to here (next chart).


The bearish view can find a defense in the fact that the wave structure off the lows is a slop-fest. Plenty of ways to count it correctively, rather than as I have been (impulsively). The final leg of a 3-swing correction should be an impulse, and that may be the beautiful impulse wave we’ve just ridden (orange c). If they’re going to pull a rabbit out of their hats, they could try to do it soon. I don’t think this is particularly probable, but I offer it because of the ambiguity involved in counting the whole structure as a clear impulse from beginning to end.

(And also, the gap down in the equity PCR this morning is some put capitulation, which—ironically—opens the door a crack for the bears.)


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