I have pointed out the bearish alternative on $ES a few times now (i.e., here and here). The “yawning arc” remains possible, but I am now considering that to be my secondary count. I gave some of my reasons for liking the bear count in yesterday’s post, but a major reason is that I’m just not seeing the series of fours and fives (moving sideways) to justify that super-nested count. This moonshot looks to me like a single wave, the last, impulsive leg of a 3-swing move. Another reason is that I feel like I’ve got a good grip on sentiment here, which is hard for me to quantify and express to you.
You guys have already seen this count; it’s just that I think it’s important to tell you when I think the probabilities of one count over another begin to gain dominance (in my mind), and that’s happened here.
Ultimately, this is still an exceptionally bullish count in the long run, as I am understanding it—presently—as a two.
From here, we don’t have to take out the prior high, but it is acceptable if we do, if we are making an expanded flat. At any rate, I will be looking for a turn soon, and a move lower in 5-waves (flats are 3-3-5 structures, and we’ve got 3 down for green A, 3 up for green B).
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