In my last call on $T, I was merely looking for a counter-trend bounce as we were at multi-decade support. High probability call, imo. Well goodness. Not even a fight (that has now been filed under “Unsuccessful Calls.”)
As a result of that, let’s look at the long-term Elliott Wave count. The whole move from the dot-com high is corrective price action. I see 5 waves down for cycle (yellow) a, followed by a 3-wave retracement for cycle (yellow) b, and so we should be in cycle (yellow) c.
Now, we’ve just given up a twenty-year trend line, and we need to listen to that. Cycle (yellow) c should be a 5-wave drawdown. I believe we have completed both primary and intermediate ones and twos and are embarking on the third of the third. Primary (pink) 3 has a target range of the orange box below. I apologize for its size, but that’s just what fibs do on a stock like this whose price has varied so dramatically as a percentage.
As far as where cycle (yellow) c could end up in the end, there is one fib relationship that seems reasonable, which I’ve marked. That will give cycle (yellow) “c” and “a” a relationship in price, which we like to see. If we try to use the next fib up (the 61.8%), it would take us to a double bottom with cycle (yellow) a, so that’s also a possibility if these next waves don’t extend a lot.
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