Both Bull and Bear $ES Counts Should Lead to Lower Prices

My interpretation remains unchanged. i continue to favor the bear count here. On this count, I expect us to turn lower soon and head down in 5 waves either in a retest of the October lows (if we’re in a running flat) or to head down and take out those lows (if we’re in an expanded flat). Now when we’re going to turn down will be obvious in hindsight, but I really don’t think it will be much longer. Days? Sooner? Until then, I’m forced to sit here looking a bit dumb because I think it’s unwise for me to call for nominally higher prices, even if we do squirt higher. I think there’s too much risk for us to expect that, even if we’re going to get it.

ES

But: even if you’re inclined to be bullish here, you may expect lower prices. What we don’t have, and what I need for the bull case, is some correction. If you do want to count all of this as a 1-2-1-2, we don’t have any fours in here. So, even on the bull count, we may expect even as much as a hundred point retracement, just for minute (blue) 4. So, I wish I could tell you the exact minute this will turn over, but I lack that power. Hopefully it won’t take too much longer.

ES

5 thoughts on “Both Bull and Bear $ES Counts Should Lead to Lower Prices”

  1. I like the analysis, but what do you think about SPY recapturing the channel from March/April? Its just the tip right now but it has closed the last hourly candle inside, at least where I have the channel marked.

  2. I will have to see your trend lines. I’ve just tried a couple of ways, and I don’t think I see what you’re seeing (but that doesn’t mean you’re not seeing something important).

  3. Ok, I see now. Hmm. Let’s see. That may be relevant. Hard to say.

    My personal preference here for the trend line of greatest significance is from the 3/4/21 & 7/19/21 lows, and if we extend that one, we remain beneath it.

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