Revisiting the $ES Bull Count

If the Apple and Amazon results and the poor GDP print couldn’t inspire big sellers, it’s important to remind ourselves of the $ES super-nest bull count. Bears are losing their window of opportunity, especially as seasonality is quickly approaching a typically very bullish period. Until we stop seeing huge green candles every day, it may be safe to assume that a lot of money is still trying to enter this market.

In that spirit, here’s a count. This is my original “arc” count. When I made it my secondary, I did so largely because the whole nest of ones and twos coming off the October lows seems forced, but we’re now merely drifting sideways, instead of reversing, which could be the unravelling of all of the threes and fours that a super-nest would require. If this is what we’re doing, we may expect a general continued drift up and to the right in which every dip continues to be bought until we finish minor (green) 1. Perhaps at that time we will get a more serious pullback.

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