In the Event That We Do Not Want to Be Stupidly Bullish, Here Is an Option

I wish I had a grand conviction. I’m torn: price says up (here’s that count), but my bearish instincts are screaming at me to be cautious. I have to believe the madness will eventually end. I really would rather it be sooner than later.

Here’s an alternative we can keep in mind to prevent us from becoming intoxicated by price alone.

I noticed on $RSP the other day that the weird low we put in formed a beautiful triangle. See where I have the primary (pink) 4.

RSP

It’s a real beauty. Now, this is of interest because triangles only happen in B waves and fours. And that cannot be a B. That could mean that we are headed toward a major top. Also of interest, note that the same triangle appears on the Dow (I’ve drawn it here on $DIA):

DIA

Also a beauty, also same problem. It’s got to be a four here, as a B-wave is ruled out. Now, whether we’re headed straight to primary (pink) 5 or just the first wave of a 5-wave move to that 5 is yet to be seen. But, it’s interesting to see these here.

And so, perhaps we can weirdly squeeze the same structure into $ES, like this (it looks a little weird here, but there are no rule violations):

ES

It resolves the problem I face regarding the bottom not looking impulsive: this would imply that the whole period was part of a corrective triangle, all 3-wave moves internally. And so on this count, we may also be headed toward a big 5, too. It would be silly of me to adopt too heavily of a bullish bias right at a market top, so I have to entertain counts like these for a while longer.


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