The Stupidly Bullish $ES Count

I am absolutely willing to be bullish in the long-term, but golly, I just didn’t feel like that correction was enough of a washout to really supply us with the means of going higher, but they are marking us up whether we like it or not. I’ve posted this before (a close variant), and I’ve been willing to adopt it, but, as I just said, the move off the October lows has troubled me, and I like to see a second big washout in corrections. They often have: 1) some kind of first washout, 2) then a big short squeeze, 3) then the real washout. I’ve been thinking we’re in step 2, but this move is too powerful. And where would we expect to find a move like that? Entering the 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd, etc.

So, let’s try cycle (yellow) 1-2, followed by primary (pink) 1-2, followed by intermediate (orange) 1-2. Now, we should be completing-ish minor (green) 1. That could get us to the channel strike or so mentioned earlier. Then we should get a retracement, possibly to the midline of this broad channel we are in (that’s the little green 2 and small orange box below us). After that, we may see a 700 point rally to minor (green) 3.

If this count is correct, we can get a good estimate of when intermediate (orange) 3 will be because of its fib relationship with intermediate (orange) 1 in time. I’ve marked the relationships here using the vertical dashed lines. The earliest we would expect that top to come in is next April.

What I will be watching closely for is the pullback to green 2. If I think it’s corrective in nature, I will announce that loudly and clearly, and it would indicate that I believe this count is correct. What I’d like to see during that pullback is everyone saying, “This is it,” meaning, they believe a major top is in. But, if everyone is looking to buy that dip, we will need to be careful.

I apologize for not being able to anticipate the sheer magnitude of this move. I called for a big move when we were lower (here, here), but it soon began to feel to me at the time that everyone was too quickly abandoning fear. But now it feels like everyone can’t wait for it to stop, which may mean we’re in for a long run. I really do make a terrible bull when it comes down to it. I’ll keep trying. I just can’t get the 40 Shiller PE Ratio off my mind, lol. (And there is still this alternative).

ES


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