I Am Now Looking for Downside in $BTC

Some recap on $BTC:

  1. My last direct call was here, and we (all but) got that.
  2. Because of the nature of that rally, I suggested the possibility of entering a very long uptrend. I posted that here.

However, I am now cancelling that latter call. For that count to work better for me, I would actually have expected this present rally to go somewhat significantly higher than it has. Instead, what we’ve done is we broke to a new high, and we’re now fussing near the prior all-time highs. A new uptrend like the one I had proposed would have been more probable, in my opinion, had we broken sharply to new highs, then consolidated above those highs, not below them, as we now are. And furthermore, there is a way to count the move up from the June low as a 5-wave pattern (that’s the intermediate [orange] 5-wave move I’ve labeled here).

There is also a very reasonable way to count the entire move beginning from December of 2018 as a 5-wave move complete, as all we needed was one further high (that’s the primary [pink] count). Two other reasons:

  1. Sentiment seems especially complacent here. It “feels” to me as if everyone now assumes it’s simply going to continue to rally. After other rallies, lots of people said it was going to go to zero, and I literally see no one saying that here. And I follow dozens and dozens of analysts from all over the world.
  2. And the gamma squeeze in the equities (discussed here) has me increasingly worried that we may enter a risk-off period soon.

Now, I could be completely wrong about this. But, I think it is safer to assume that at least the intermediate (orange) 5-wave move is complete and that we may, at a minimum, retrace to the orange box below.

I know this will disappoint some of you to hear me say this, and I hope I’m wrong for your sake, but I have to call what I see, so, I’m doing that here.


[UPDATE]: The target box has been hit. I will file this under “Successful Calls.” I will need to monitor the price action from here prior to making a new call.


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