Now Let’s Do $MSFT

As discussed here, generating a wave count for $MSFT is difficult because there’s just not a lot of structure. On the widest view, we only really have one “big” correction that is visible from outer space:

MSFT

So, let’s go ahead and call that a big, fat 2. We wouldn’t really want to call that a “4,” because the only “2” we could easily match it with is the late 80s, and that looks much, much too small in time. A two-year 2 and a ten-year 4? Dubious.

The only thing bears have going for them right now is the bearish divergence on the weekly RSI, which, of course, doesn’t mean it’s going to fall off the Earth tomorrow. But, if other things are lining up too, they may all sail into the abyss together. So, let’s begin zooming in.

The most continuously parabolic, most unrelenting section of the advance looks to me to be the two years from 2016-2018. And so what we can try is to assign the “third of the third of the third” to that section, and then try to build a count entirely around it.

MSFT

Doing so may give us something roughly like this:

MSFT

So far, so good, that looks acceptable enough. And so from that point, we would like to see a 5-wave structure from the COVID crash lows.

And we do have enough highs in place to do it if we need to:

MSFT

It’s not without its problems. Intermediate (orange) 3 ending in April looks like the least impulsive section, awfully choppy, and primary (pink) 4 looks a little small, but not impossibly too small. Mixed bag at the very least.

And zooming in real close locally now, we do have enough highs in place to count 5 waves up from the October low (that’s the full orange count below).

Now, one concern might be that the big end of October gap should be placed in a third of a third, indicating that we’re still firmly in the move, but, big jumps don’t always happen in middles. And the divergence on this timeframe may signal that we’re ending at least something.

MSFT

Now for this one, unlike Apple and Facebook Meta, which are both off their highs, this one really isn’t yet and I can’t generate any reliable target below until we get a first move down and a first retracement. That said, the point of this post is to show that we may be very close on this one too, especially if there’s a big selloff right around the corner.

Of interesting note is that both Apple and Meta may be completing supercycle structures, which would imply a many-year bear market coming quickly. And, looking back on the original $MSFT chart from above, here, too, we should be expecting supercycle four and it should match supercycle 2 roughly in time:

MSFT

Ouch.

[And sorry for the placement of the cycle (yellow) 1/2 on this last chart: TradingView often shifts some of the counts when one zooms way in from the weekly, and then back out, which I did here, and I didn’t see this until after I uploaded the screenshot, and I’m too lazy to redo it.]


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