Back in September, I wrote that $AAPL should continue to find support for some time (here). The claim was predicated on the likelihood that Apple was still unraveling all the threes, fours and fives of its super-duper long bull market. Let’s review, locally, what that may look like today. You can see all of those threes, fours and fives of minor (green), intermediate (orange), primary (pink), and cycle (yellow) degrees unfolding along this top:
But now, let’s look back at where all of those come from. So, going all the way back, we can see in the eighties what appears to be a pretty respectable leading diagonal, and so let’s call that supercycle (purple) 1. And from that, we had a nice, multi-year decline, which looks great as a deep 2 that we would expect to follow from a leading diagonal.
And, after that, a nice 5-wave move leading to supercycle (purple) 3, followed by a 45% decline for supercycle (purple) 4.
Following that comes the super-duper nest of ones and twos, like such:
You can see them in there as cycle (yellow) [that one’s actually just off the left side of the chart], primary (pink), intermediate (orange) and then minor (green). All those ones and twos led to…what? The stupid, post-COVID, pandemics are awesome rally. So, why do all of the nesting? For starters, it does let us account for the vertical move, and secondly, there is a small overlap between the April 2019 high and the COVID crash low, so if you’re an Elliott Wave purist, then you need a nest.
I happen not to be a purist, because I’ve just seen too many times where guys insist on a count for reasons like a small, petty overlap, and then I watch the market violate their count at some point. So, let’s eliminate that nest, just to see what happens. It would do this:
Ruh-rohs. Notice how all of the counts get shifted an entire degree over, bringing us far closer to a big top.
But wait…there’s more.
There is a funky problem with the weekly chart on this broad count:
On the supercycle degree, it would make very little sense to have such a long 2 matched by such a brief 4. And so we can fix that, by extending the supercycle (purple) 4 into a running flat, which has a much better “look,” especially in regards to time:
But then, there’s very little left stopping us from assigning an ending diagonal to the structure, like this:
Now, I don’t have terribly high confidence in the top being put in, but it may be that we’re there or at least closer than many would like to believe. We may have a first impulse down for minor (green) 1, but there is an overlap between minute (blue) 1 and 4. Though, like I’ve said, I’ve seen many, many folks insist on that, only to have it fail. There are other ways to count this impulsively. I won’t cover every possibility, but none of them seem perfect to me, so I’ve just picked one to show. And we have retraced to the second-most probable level for a 2 (the 78.6%) to the tick. As with
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