Here’s a Sort of Bearish $ES Alt to Keep in Mind

The bullish count appears to be playing out. That said, I have this in my mind because I do this throughout the day but I try to not to throw the full stream of consciousness at you because I think it would be confusing (if not even alarming, lol).

But, in this instance, I think it would be unfair if this alternative starts to play out and I present it to you after the fact; so, I’ll alert you to it early. The reason I want to do that is because there are very few puts in the system here. And if we begin to break out of the bull flag, then a rush of overconfidence could enter people’s minds and you know what that can lead to.

So, on this alt, the low wasn’t a “4,” but rather an “a,” and this sideways crap we’ve had has been mostly a triangle “b.” So, the expected length of minuette (orange) c would be right at the bull flag border. My primary count wants to see us enter that orange box with some conviction. If we fail to, there is still a chance for us to make another dash lower to minute (blue) c to freak people out and make them buy some puts.

If that happened, I would be inclined to think this entire mega rally was a minor (green) 1, followed by this correction as a minor (green) 2, after which we could do some stupid stuff (if we’re not already on track for that now).

This is just a heads up. What we want to see is a definitive breakout of this structure.

ES


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