My expectation is that $ES has topped. We would expect, in such an event, for the market to give up these levels with some ease, if we were in a typical, impulsive wave to the downside. But, since it’s being reluctant to move with vigor, I will present an alternative that would help to account for that. It would understand us to be heading lower, but this initial wave down may be a leading, expanding diagonal for minor (green) 1.
This could help to account for the whole structure (at least so far) given that all components of the pattern are—strictly speaking—three wave corrections, and hence the choppy look.
If this is the case, we would still expect quite a spill from here for the final minute (blue) 5, followed by a rally to minor (green) 2.
The test for this would be trying to determine whether the move from here to minute (blue) 5 is a 3-wave structure like the others or not.
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