Despite the excellent setup I believed we had for a bull trap (especially the look of the structure on $SPY—noted here), prices continue to rise and $ES has now passed the 78.6% retracement of its decline, making my interpretation of this most recent rally as a 2 less probable. It remains possible so long as we do not take out the prior high, but it certainly is less probable at this point.
And $RTY is within its 50-61.8% retracement area now, an area from which it could down if it wanted to:
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