Having given bond bears the benefit of the doubt for some time, I warned that that may need to change here. I suggested that we watch the local channel we’ve been in on $TLT, and we did get a trial breach of that. That may have been a warning.
If my feelings of dread about the markets here are not irrational, we may see a flight to safety soon. $TLT does give us the look of a leading diagonal here, which may be a wave 1 of a new bullish cycle. It’s since had a 3-wave pullback, and may be set to launch to around 160, which would be the minute (blue) wave 3 target area above.
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