I hate being part of the consensus, which right now is quite bullish. Only a couple of analysts I follow are looking down. That’s a terrible sign. And there are a lot of risk signals in the market right now that I’ve been harping about. It’s hard for me to understand why we’re going up so hard under these conditions. I’ve never seen the market so perfectly setup for a rug pull and not get it.
I will carry this bearish count as an alt until some of these risk signals abate. It’s dirty and forced (but in some ways so was my prior bearish count, though it was certainly defensible). With the new high, we’d have to do something like this. But I don’t have much faith in it for the time being.
It feels to me like everyone needs to get surprised here, and I’m not sure what that means if everyone expects us to go up and we go up. Almost literally everyone is expecting bullish seasonality, Christmas rally, 4800, Fed goes brrr, and on and on and on. Everyone carrying the same narrative. I can only hope that it doesn’t mean that no one is bullish enough. My goodness. How expensive can this market get?
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