A Weird Thought for $IWM

Here’s a count you won’t see anywhere.

Supplying a reliable count for $IWM is difficult to do. I puzzle over it often. Something that’s bugged me is what appears to be a triangle this fall. It must be accounted for, and I believe I have a way to do it. I think we can draw much of the top as a huge expanding triangle 4th wave itself. Doing so allows us to place the smaller triangle from the fall as a B-wave in a 3-wave move heading to intermediate (orange) D as I have it labelled here (with the C-wave being an ending expanding diagonal—that’s the red pattern).

This would imply that we are in the E-wave of the large triangle which should complete the 4th primary (pink) wave. So, how will we know? If the move from here to intermediate (orange) E is a 3-wave move (and remember, they often fall short), it should mean we have one more push in this market before the high is in. But, if we move impulsively down and breach the large green triangle down there around 210, then we’re cooked.


[UPDATE]: There are two misleading things about the chart above. I want to take a moment to clarify them. By my placement of the intermediate (orange) waves leading to primary (pink) 5 above, I made it seem as though it could take months and that we will hit new highs again, but that is not necessarily so at all. The requirement for the primary (pink) 5 is not new all-time highs per se, but rather, it only needs to take out primary (pink) 3’s high.

Also, it need not take months and months. You can see how the rallies can be quite fast (red arrows, chart below). To give an example of what one of those could look like here, I drew a green impulse wave off of the peaks and troughs of the move noted by the second red arrow rally. I then dragged that over to where we are now in the expected rally leading to primary (pink) 5. In other words, the structure I’ve drawn on the right here comes directly from the contours of the rally pointed to by the second red arrow.

This would indicate that the highs are actually already in.


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