A Review of the Options for $ES, As I See Them Here

In a market that has been especially ugly as sin to count since the COVID lows, the market Gods (or Demons, pick as you see fit) have gifted us a beautiful 5-wave decline:

ES

There are a finite number of things we may do with such a beauty. Let us review each of them in turn.


Option #1: It’s the C-wave of a flat:

ES

If that is so, then there must be a 4 under it, and we would expect it to form an impulse wave coming out of the lows, but it doesn’t make a good impulse wave. For starters, we have that weird, spiky flip-flop thing coming out of the C-wave low, and if that’s a 1-2, it’s very deep for a 2. I discussed the possibilities of this count here and here. If that were a 1-2, we should be in a 3rd wave today, and I wouldn’t have expected so much resistance. Third waves are somewhat obvious: they run and run, free of hinderance. Now, if it runs and runs over night and in the limited hours coming up, I would expect this count to be it.


Option #2: It’s an A-Wave of a larger correction.

ES

This is the triangle idea I suggested earlier today here and here (there are a couple of things we can do with it if it is a triangle). However, as we continued to grind higher, we’re losing some of the nice contraction that makes triangles triangles, and we’re almost parallel now. On the basis of that, I think this is becoming less possible.

That actually leaves us with the most bearish possible alternative, believe it or not.


Option #3: It’s a 1st leg of death incarnate.

ES

It fits all of the criteria I would like to see for a 1-2. The two counts well as a flat, and this can account for the spiky thing (in this case, minute [blue] a). It came right to where we’d like a 2 to come. So, let’s see what happens, but until I see otherwise, I actually think the last option is the best here.


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