Speculative But Hilarious Bear Count

Both bulls and bears are chomping at the bit for a chance here and I have a count that may surprise everyone. In my view, not enough Elliotticians remain on the lookout for triangles, but I believe we spend almost half of our time in them.

That $ES did not squirt higher a short while ago is interesting. Someone with some real push is selling up here. If—if—we don’t crack those highs, be on the lookout for something like this possibility.

Watch how everyone can die here:

  1. We take out that prior low, bears think this is it (but it won’t be). Notice the importance I’ve been putting on taking out that low myself. I am not the only one who sees that.
  2. Bulls freak out and capitulate and buy mountains of puts, not realizing that it’s a golden two. And unfortunately, that’s what I would expect a structure like this to be here (if we find support in the orange box). The triangle would mean this is only a correction.

Put-to-call ratio today is high but not that high, and it’s come off quite a bit from this morning, implying everyone thinks the coast is clear. If something like this were to play out, it would fit perfectly. Now, we take out these series of local highs, and the outright bull count looks good. But until this contraction we’re now seeing gets resolved, this could be hilarious to fall like that just when we’re all thinking we’re now safe.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.

One thought on “Speculative But Hilarious Bear Count”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *