I see two possibilities here for $ES:
- A nest of ones and twos (the “red” count, minor then minute degrees)
- A leading diagonal (the “blue” count, all minute degree waves so far)
The bulls will want to see my minute (blue) 1-2-3 as an A-B-C, but for that to work, they will need an impulse wave off Friday’s lows, and they sure don’t have that, so, I can’t even really imagine a bull count here.
- If we fail around the orange box we’re in now but find support near the September highs, the leading diagonal is probably what we’re doing and we should expect a long, drawn minor (green 2)
- If we crash deeply below these levels, especially overnight, the nest is more probable
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