$ES at Very Important Juncture

I continue to see two possibilities here for $ES. The two options were last pointed out here.

  1. The very bearish count is the not white count. On that count, we’re one-twoing our way down and we need a huge plunge through the September high to confirm.
  2. The still bearish but worse later rather than sooner count is white, and it’s that we’re in a leading diagonal that could be done at any moment (now that we’ve taken out the last low).

In either case, I think we will get a reaction here because of that September high. In the case of the former, it will be for subminuette (red) 2; in the case of the latter it will be a much bigger, more drawn out “white two” of a larger degree.

I wish I could be more helpful than that here. The $VIX is very high, puts are definitely being bought here in some size, so I can definitely see the second option happening, but the first is just as possible.


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