$BTC: Bullish Count

I warned you guys on Twitter about some bullish posts coming this weekend, and this is the first of them. I have some others and I’ll post some of them separately as individual calls and I will then refer back to some of them in a summary article.

Now, let’s recap my views on $BTC:

  1. Here, i was bullish, saw the potential for a 1-2 in a bull flag, gave a local target. We came close.
  2. Based on the sheer strength of that move, I even acknowledged the possibility of a huge move (here).
  3. However, as we crept up, I didn’t like what I was seeing, and I pointed that out here. Now, that’s played out, so far so good.

And now? Now I’m not so sure it’s had its all-time top. Why? Well, it’s the structure of the decline. In the “all-time high is here” count, the 5-wave structure we’ve seen since July is the final one, but it could, for all we know, be the first one of a larger 5-wave move. And, while examining this recent drop, there is good chance that it’s a two.

If it walks like a two and it quacks like a two, it’s probably a two. The first thing I note is that it’s come directly to the 50-61.8% retracement of the prior advance. That’s exactly what a two should go.

BTC

Furthermore, remember when I was expecting a bounce (here)? Well, we didn’t get it. If we were in a death spiral, we should impulse down. We had a good candidate for a one, and I was looking for a two—even a shallow two. We didn’t even get the shallow two. Hmm. Interesting.

So, an impulse (red 1 below) should have given us a good red 2. What did we get instead? A nice, big triangle. Triangles are only found in fours and B-waves. This is much too big for a four. Thus, it’s likely a B. Then we dumped in a C to exactly where a two would go. So this looks like a terrific candidate for a correction, not an impulse down. That makes the wave 3 target where I’ve placed the orange box above us in the prior chart.

BTC


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