This morning, i was expecting a 3rd wave rally to the orange box. Now, we got a rally, so far so good. But: we didn’t get the breakout and we didn’t get to the box. That doesn’t mean this move is doomed. But, it may be a warning sign. My assumption here is that the recent low was the C of an E of that big primary (pink) B. We should get a big impulse rally out of that low, and at least so far, this rally is only in 3 waves.
So, until we break out and see a big impulse wave, there is always the risk that today was the minute (blue) E-wave of the triangle I believe we are in. If that turns out to be true, then we should see one 5-wave impulse to the downside, before rallying hard, like this:
All will be forgiven if we get out of this structure powerfully overnight.
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