Long-Term Bond Count Is Really Weird, But May Tell Us Important Future Swings: Let’s Get Svelte with $TLT

Probably the weirdest thing we can do is to try to count $TLT seriously. And that sounds like an invitation so let’s do it.

It’s a strange structure, and looks entirely corrective. And the only way to really do it is sort of like how I had to do the S&P (here) where triangles lead into other triangles. And what that means—essentially—since the price of bonds has gone “up” all these years is that some long past bond uptrend is correcting in some kind of long-term flat. The start of that is some long-past light blue “a” in the bottom left corner. And we’ve been doing the big light blue b ever since. I don’t even want to try this on an actual 40-year bond chart because it’s probably nested all the back like this and it’s very difficult to nest these while also staying sane. 2-3 of them is enough for me.

At any rate, when you untwist the noodle we should be in a 3-wave move down in a (purple) “b” here (or maybe this will become a triangle of its own like the last ones?). And we do look like we’re making a bit of a bear flag. What that should mean is that we should get a 5-wave impulse down for that cycle (yellow) c, followed by a larger 5-wave impulse back up for purple c, followed by an even larger 5-wave impulse down for light blue c in the bottom right. Gawdam. Y’all want to see some volatility?

In other words, we’ve been building all the A’s and B’s for decades, and at some point, we need to finish tying the other side of the bow. So, hmm. I’m guessing at some scenarios on the chart.


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