Now That We’ve Gone Shooting Up as Expected, Let Me Point Out One Risk Assessment on $ES

Just so as not to be blinded by the green candles, let’s acknowledge that bears can always conduct surprise attacks. My primary count is bullish (here), but there is a way to count this as a correction, so let’s at least look at it, just in case. If it is a correction, we’re at the 78.6% retracement, which is the second-best place for a two. It would look like this, and we would fall tremendously lower in a third wave decline from here:


I’ll reiterate the bull count:


What bulls want to see here is continued advance from here (I don’t know that orange 3 is in all the way yet), or consolidation (if it is in) that remains elevated. We want to stay “up” here, giving us some distance between orange 1 and wherever orange 4 will be. So, roughly speaking, we can consolidate or advance anywhere around or above the orange box and have greater confidence that we’re decidedly in a new impulsive structure to the upside.

Any precipitous selling that takes us sharply lower than that area would be concerning.

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