My prior view (from here) has intermediate (orange) 2 in. Why? Because we hit that orange box (50-61.8% retracement) in a 3-wave move and bounced hard, all consistent with a wave two. Someone stepped in there and, from the looks of it, scooped up $400 million dollars worth of $BTC in there. From that low, we should rally in a powerful new impulse structure, entering a 3rd wave advance of not insubstantial degree.
But, what have we done so far? We’ve only rallied in 3-waves and haven’t even been able to recapture the 250-period EMA on several timeframes. So, it’s possible, zooming in a bit, that we go to the next most common fib for a wave 2, the 78.6%. The minor (green) C needs to be 5 waves, and it might look like this, with a soul-crushing 5th wave decline just ahead of us, like this:
Was expecting a higher quality rally, I’m not seeing it yet, so I’m modifying my views. This is partly what’s led to my being open to an encore to the correction in equities (here).
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