I Slightly Favor the More Bearish $ES Alternative: Here’s an Unknown to Know About

As you know, I’ve been looking at two variations here, both bearish at the moment. Either a pullback for a 2, or a much deeper correction C-wave to complete what I think is a large triangle of primary degree. I’m slightly favoring the more bearish alternative now (that is, a deep sell in five waves). In that last article, I gave a level to watch down there generated from what I suppose to be the trend line forming the bottom of the big triangle, but I want to show some variations of that.

I feel like if we sell hard to the December 5th low or even a bit lower, it’s not going to spook people enough. It’s going to look too much like a 3-wave A-B-C correction (which I think it actually will be). What we really need though is something that looks like a 1-2-then 3. I have a feeling—suppose I am right that we sell off—that we’re going to need a deep sell to make everything think, in unison: “This is it!

Here’s how that could happen (while not really being it):

As I had originally envisioned the large triangle “B-Wave” of primary degree that I believe we’re wrapping up, it looked like this (that’s where my green trend line comes from in the last article about this subject):

ES

But maybe that’s not quite so good. It makes orange A small, and orange B maybe too big. I actually have no idea where A is. And I won’t know until we leave the structure. But watch what happens as we move the intermediate (orange) A to subsequent lows. If we move it to the next low, we get this:

ES

Do you see how C becomes a fulcrum for the trend line? As we move A to higher lows, E becomes a lower low, giving us lots and lots of space to scare the bejeezus out of people.

And by moving it to the next low, we get this:

ES

Just imagine how bearish people will get if we give back that entire huge rally.

Any of these will do. They are all perfectly valid triangles of this degree.


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