Be Prepared In Case I am a Complete Idiot

Now, my view is that I’ve leaned toward the more bearish alternative that we should drop again. But my overall view is that we will be entering a very powerful uptrend of long-duration eventually.

I may be completely wrong about the first sentence (while still be right about the second). One thing I don’t like here is how the equity put-to-call ratio has been grinding up all day relentlessly, which could be a sign that everyone (like me) is trying to fade this. I suspected that we would need another washout to scare people, but maybe they already are.

Now, if the big primary (pink) B wave that I’ve been pointing out on all the indices is actually in everywhere, we should explode to the upside. And while $SPY‘s price action does not look particularly good as a first impulse wave, and $AAPL‘s structure looks like it should at least correct, $IWM does have what could amount to a good first impulse wave:

IWM

It’s had an advance, followed by a retracement to the 50-61.8% box. If so, $SPY would have to be something like this, with a ridiculously almost non-existent 2:

SPY

I have no idea what I would do with Apple except re-interpret the volatility structure it’s in not as either a triangle nor as an ending diagonal, but rather as a series of ones and twos winding up for a big third wave. None of this is my preferred interpretation given the sum of the evidence I see (like bonds, Bitcoin), but I can be completely wrong. And until we see some selling, I have no idea if I’m right.


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