I lack sufficient evidence to have strong conviction one way or another.
Here is the bearish $ES count.
Supporting evidence:
- Bitcoin’s rally from its December 3rd low does not look impulsive.
- The chopfest we’ve been in is more consistent with a B-wave rather than a 4th wave.
- If they are going to mark the market up a 100%, I have faith that they will want to accumulate more at lower prices, not higher prices.
- I still think that $TLT needs to go up more, not down, at least for a week or so.
Contradicting evidence:
- $OIL looks ready to rock.
- PCR is high here, indicating that everyone may be trying to fade this rally.
Here is the bullish $ES count.
Supporting evidence:
- Likewise from above, $OIL may be set to rip.
- $IWM may have begun its journey.
Contradicting evidence:
- It’s a shamefully small minute (blue) 2.
- Likewise from above, if Bitcoin is set to puke, equities should follow.
- The two most obvious ways to read $AAPL here still suggest to me that its next move should be down, not up.
- Likewise from above, strength in bonds should pull liquidity from equities.
Gun to the head, if I had to pick, I still favor down before up.
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