My last long-term look at $BABA was here, and I’ve been fishing for a wave 2 of cycle degree. At the time, it had reached its 50-61.8% retracement, but has since continued to sell. It’s now reached its 78.6% retracement which, though also a good place for wave 2, leaves us with a bit of a puzzle now. Now the whole move down, instead of looking like 3 waves, looks like 5. With only 3-waves in, the correction could have completed. But now with 5, we would expect that to be only one leg of a larger 3-swing move.
And perhaps that makes sense: it’s a 1-year selloff and that’s probably not enough to correct a 6-year bull market. So, the expectation here is that it will get a hefty bounce for primary (pink) B, that could coincide with the blowoff I am expecting in other equities, but then it should be followed by a second 5-wave impulse for primary (pink) C to complete cycle (yellow) 2.
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