Because the 5-wave advance from the December 3rd low was retraced only in what I think is 3 waves, I am leaning towards a bullish count on $ES. It would look roughly like this if the minute (blue) 2 is in:
However, two things are bugging me here: Bitcoin has not yet produced an impulsive rally, and the German $DAX continues look as though it will need a second 5-wave impulse down (discussed here). And so, it is possible for minute (blue) 2 on $ES to become more complex, with the 3-waves we’ve had down so far becoming themselves only the first wave of a 3-wave move.
If that were to happen, it could look something like this, for a deeper, more complex 2:
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